“The risk of recession over the next three to six months is arguably more elevated than at any period since 2007,” said economist Anirban Basu, noting that the U.S. economy has been defying predictions in an extended period of growth that’s seemed too good to be true for some time.
“I knew this period of fragility would leave us susceptible to a trigger,” he told his audience, “but I didn’t know what that trigger would be. Now we know.”
The coronavirus pandemic is that impetus, of course, but it’s more important to look at the playing field that got us here, he said during a session at the Modular Building Institute’s World of Modular conference on Wednesday, March 11th.
Behind the numbers: How strong is the economy, actually?
The U.S. economy is strong, said Basu, chairman and CEO of Sage Policy Group and chief economist of the Associated Builders and Contractors conceded, with “plenty of job growth” and incredibly low interest rates. But to an economist, he explained, the market’s current circumstances defy all logic of economic theory, which essentially means it’s “too good to be true.”
First, we have “impossibly low inflation,” he said, paired with “incredibly low interest rates,” plenty of job growth and rising wages. He implored his audience to ask, “how is this possible?”
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